Cosmology Views
I provided LIGO with my statistical analysis.
Here is the post in LIGO Scientific Collaboration facebook group (posted November 9 at 1 pm):
Our initial @LIGO @ego_virgo analysis classifies #S191109d as most likely another binary #BlackHoles merger...and the false alarm rate (if it's a real astrophysical event) is estimated at about once every 200,000 years.
The post included a grapic showing 99% probability of BBH merger.
added this comment (between < > ) to that November 9 post in the LIGO Software Collaboration face book page.
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Yesterday I predicted future LIGO GW detections with ranges of dates having a higher or lower probability.
The following statistics of LIGO's history are the basis for those predictions.
LIGO claims to detect gravitational waves from distant mergers of a pair of massive objects.
LIGO actually detects the wave in the crust caused by a celestial event involving the Moon or Sun.
There are 5 celestial events which LIGO detects: Full Moon, New Moon, Perigee, Perihelion, and a unique Moon-Jupiter conjunction.
As the Earth rotates these celestial events cause a wave in Earth's crust, called an earth tide.
All wave detections by LIGO are analyzed to determine the two bodies involved in the merger causing the wave and the approximate location in the sky for this merger. Probabilities are assigned to the possible combinations. The 2 candidates are a black hole or neutron star. The merger will be one of the 4 combinations of the 2 candidates. In some cases the probabilities are not high enough to be considered 'robust' but some events meet the robust criteria set by LIGO.
A wave detection on August 17, 2017 was robust and apparently confirmed so LIGO was awarded the 2017 Nobel Prize in Physics for this achievement.
However all LIGO detections are associated with these 5 celestial events which cause a terrestrial wave.
The following includes statistics of the events.
When one of these 5 events resulted in a wave detection by LIGO in the range of 2 days before to 2 days after then that result will be counted as DW2 (detection within 2 days).
When one of these 5 events resulted in a wave detection by LIGO in the range of 7 days before to 2 days after then that result will be counted as DW7 (detection within 7 days).
When one of these 5 events resulted in a gravitational wave detection with an assigned merger source then that result will be counted as DGW (detection of Gravitational Wave).
These are the distributions of LIGO wave detections, with and without an identified merger source.
GraceDB lists all the O3 wave detections while Wikipedia lists all the gravitational wave detections (with an assigned source) since 2015.
Each terrestrial source is listed with its counts.
Full Moon =10x
DW2 = 13x
DW7 = 21x
DGW = 15x
New Moon = 11x
DW2 = 15x
DW7 = 20x
DGW = 19x
Perigee = 5x
DW2 = 6x
DW7 = 6x
DGW = 6x
(note: there were more perigee events than 5 but others coincided with a FM or NM so the overlap detections were counted with the FM or NM).
Perihelion = 1x
DW2 = 1x
DW7 = 1x
DGW = 1x
Moon-Jupiter conjunction = 1x
DW2 = 1x
DW7 = 2x
DGW = 2x
Conclusions:
a) Each perihelion, or Moon-Jupiter conjunction has resulted in a claim of a GW with an assigned merger as the distant source.
b) Each perigee has resulted in 1 or 2 claims of a GW with an assigned merger as the distant source.
c) Each full moon or new moon has resulted in 1 or more claims of a GW with an assigned merger as the distant source.
These are not just coincidences.
LIGO is detecting the wave from a terrestrial source and not from a distant astrophysical source as claimed.
LIGO must verify their claimed distant source.
On November 10 I predicted a gravitational wave detection based on a full moon and 2 detections followed in the next 7 hours, confirming a wave from a full moon is detected as a gravitational wave by LIGO.
The above statistics indicate an incredible coincidence if another source is claimed. Claims must be verified. My confirmed prediction on November 10 verified my source.
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